The Art of Decision Making

A new topic for discussion in management journals and other publications is, surprisingly, on making decisions. Fortune International recently carried a cover feature on this theme in its 75th anniversary issue.
"Blink" is the title of a new bestseller attempting to analyse how some people consistently make quick and brilliant decisions and others not.
Of course, over decades, many theories and models have been developed to understand and facilitate decision making. However, I guess this new-found interest in this subject is probably because some of the best-trained managers and political leaders have apparently erred in their decisions in recent times.
One of the worst ones in recent times could be the decision of George Bush to invade Iraq. Hundreds of billions of dollars of shareholder wealth was eroded in the last few years by telecom czars when they placed bets on 3-G technologies.
Marks & Spencer, amongst the most successful of all European retailers till some time ago, has seen erosion in revenues for seven consecutive quarters despite having a number of chairmen/senior business leaders.
At the same time, relatively an upstart from India -- Mittal Steel -- is now in Fortune Global 500 and heads this very illustrious list when measured on performance in terms of returns on assets.
Despite the apparent error committed by Mercedes Benz in launching an outdated model on its debut in India, Ford managers -- in their wisdom -- did the same with Escort and have since been struggling to be counted as a serious player in the fast-growing market.
Tata Motors, despite many cynics, bet on Indica and built up a serious passenger car business for themselves in just about no time.
Pantaloon's mercurial chairman -- Kishore Biyani -- has been riding the crest of growth of modern retail through his lightning-fast decision taking that has left his competitors way behind.
As a consultant to some of the largest Indian and multinational businesses, I have the privilege of seeing from close quarters the decision-taking processes adopted by many of them.
I cannot share names at this time for confidentiality reasons, but in the next decade, I am confident we would have some very surprising names on the list of winners and losers.
What should be the right decision-taking strategy in the Indian context? In my view, the most important strategy should be to "actually take decisions".
We should proudly accept the fact that as per the most recent ranking of the top 10 economies of the world, India is at number 10.
While it may take 6-7 years for us to overtake the currently ninth-ranked Canada (at current economic growth rates for both these countries), it still implies that India can finally provide the opportunity to create multi-billion dollar businesses.
For this growing, young, and vibrant consuming class, the issue should no longer be about the sustainability of the opportunity but more about getting to market at the earliest with the appropriate proposition.
Likewise, the decision should no longer be on which opportunity to pursue, especially when faced with a plethora of options.
It should be more on just picking up any one that appeals most and then spending effort and resource on getting started very quickly.
Unfortunately, the track record of many established Indian businesses has not been so good in recent years. The textile and clothing industry is the most poignant example of having missed the post-quota opportunity that was staring at India for the last 10 years.
Construction/infrastructure is another area where by this time, many Indian business houses could have positioned themselves to take advantage of the very large projects that will probably now go to international players.
In retailing, I have gone through the pain of seeing dozens of promising business plans gathering dust in a number of corporate headquarters.
Having decided to take decisions, and take them quickly, the next step is to institute a process for arriving at decisions. While the decision-taking process has to be supported with data, information, and analysis, a line has to be drawn on how much information and analysis would be adequate to take an "informed" decision.
In most cases, it is possible to isolate the most important variables that can have a bearing on success or failure. A process must be put in place to prioritise the variables themselves, and then assigning team(s) to study these variables in a defined time schedule.
Then, decision must be taken to take a decision on the basis of information and analysis available at that point rather than procrastinating by asking for more information.
All decisions cannot turn out to be right, given the heightened uncertainty in the external business environment on account of a myriad factors.
Hence, boards must condone some errors as long as they are satisfied that there was no compromise by the decision taker on the process itself, and that the logic used to arrive at a conclusion was flawless.
HR managers have to start giving more importance to decision-making capabilities of their new recruits, especially at the senior levels.
I am not sure what tools are available to hone such capabilities, but if they do exist, companies must make an effort to put their leadership teams through such programmes.The next decade, most likely, is to be India's decade. It would be interesting to see who the winners and losers would be!

--Rediff

Ideal Indians...

We're Indians. We don't kiss. Kissing is what people outside India do. We just smile shyly at the people we love. Watch our many movies for proof.
We are all heterosexual. Homosexuals live outside our borders. We encourage our media to explore sexuality. We accept alternative sexualities, even though we are all convinced they do not exist.
Few of us undress fully while making love. Undressing is what people outside India do. We are content with a little wiggling and maybe a few post-coital cigarettes. Sex is, after all, a dirty word. We don't think about sex. It's never on our minds. We think pure thoughts at all hours.
We love cricket. It's because we're so good at it. It's because our cricketers pour their hearts into every game. Other sports are not worthy of our attention. Other sportsmen do not pour their hearts out into their games. Other sportsmen are not worthy of endorsing our brands of footwear, aerated drinks or car batteries. Our cricketers alone deserve our adoration. Our cricketers and our movie stars, that is. Our movie stars are intelligent. They study all scripts carefully and are always unwilling to propagate stereotypes. Our movie stars live clean, wholesome lives and are therefore perfectly suited to deliver clean, wholesome messages to the masses that adore them.
We are a patient, tolerant people. We accept all religions and tolerate all kinds of behaviour. We never riot. Rioting, too, happens only outside our borders. We keep the peace at all hours. We do not typecast other religions or provoke sentiments. Watch our many movies for proof.
All Indians are our brothers and sisters. This is why we respect all women. This is why women in our major cities can do as they like and travel, unaccompanied, at all hours. This is why our policemen are highly respected, for the protection they offer all women. We like women to have minds of their own. Women who lead their own lives need not fear humiliation at our hands. We do not brand them whores. Look at our many female film stars for proof. We respect them all. The ones who choose to do as they like on screen, as well as the ones who do not.
We have never felt the need to keep women at home, closeted or covered in any way. Bold women are never a threat to us. The idea of female sexuality is welcomed and holds no threat for our calm countrymen. We do not ask women to wear clothes we choose for them. We respect them irrespective of whether they're dressed in nine-yard saris or nine-inch mini-skirts.
Education is important for us. We respect our teachers. We encourage our sons and daughters to take up teaching as a profession. We pay our teachers well. We pay our teachers on time. We teach our sons that teaching is not just a job for women. We respect our system of education. We encourage our sons and daughters to get an education here, not abroad, because we believe in the system. The few who graduate abroad are encouraged to come back here, to make life even better than it already is for themselves and their countrymen.
We are proud of our culture. We uphold it every week. Our heritage is precious. This is why we protect it well. Our monuments are well cared for. Our museums are well funded. Our curators are literate and well paid. We do not allow people to encroach on sites like the Taj Mahal or the Qutub Minar. Graffiti is not allowed. Vandalism is a myth.
We treat our sons and daughters equally. We allow our daughters to marry when they wish to. We allow our daughters to pick the men they want to spend their lives with. We encourage our daughters to think for themselves. We believe they have the intelligence to make wise decisions. This is also why we encourage them to study further.
We love our country. We don't want to live anywhere else. We don't work towards the idea of leaving it and never coming back. Because we're Indians. Hypocrites, all.

--Rediff